Summary: Chang Liu initiates Coinbase ($COIN) at Hold and Alice Li initiates Nvidia ($NVDA) at Hold, marking the first official research output of Light Water's 12-week Alpha Sprint program. Both analysts will publish monthly updates through the end of the sprint.

The Alpha Sprint is underway. Chang Liu and Alice Li - our Spring 2026 Quant Strategist Interns - have published their inaugural coverage initiations as part of the program, each taking on a name that sits at the center of current market debate.

Chang is covering Coinbase. Alice is covering Nvidia. Both came in with Hold ratings. The theses are different in character - one is waiting on a sentiment shift, the other is navigating a catalyst window - but both reflect the same underlying discipline: don't reach for conviction you haven't earned yet.

Chang Liu on Coinbase ($COIN) — Hold

Chang's read on Coinbase is constructive but conditional. He sees a supportive operating backdrop - exchange volumes have been resilient and regulatory headwinds have eased - but he's not willing to call a buy until he sees what he describes as "stable upside confirmation." The core problem with Coinbase, in his view, is its sensitivity to crypto sentiment. When the market moves, COIN amplifies it. That's not a reason to avoid the stock indefinitely, but it does mean the entry point matters more than it would for a more defensive name.

His Hold reflects that patience. He's watching for a regime shift in crypto sentiment before he's willing to move to a more constructive rating.

Alice Li on Nvidia ($NVDA) — Hold

Alice's Nvidia thesis is more explicitly event-driven. She sees two near-term tailwinds - the tariff pause and continued AI infrastructure demand - but she's tempering that optimism with two sources of uncertainty: China export restrictions and what May earnings will actually reveal about enterprise AI spending. Her view is that the setup heading into the quarter introduces enough ambiguity to justify staying on the sidelines until the catalyst resolves.

She's tracking options positioning, which she notes has been growing more bullish - something she's watching as a potential leading indicator of how institutional money is positioning ahead of earnings.

12 Weeks
Chang and Alice will each maintain coverage of their assigned stock throughout the Alpha Sprint, publishing monthly updates and revising their ratings as the thesis evolves.

What comes next

This is just the beginning. The Alpha Sprint isn't a one-shot exercise - both analysts will follow their stocks for the duration of the program, updating their ratings as new information arrives and their understanding deepens. The goal isn't to be right on day one. It's to build the habit of maintaining a living thesis: one that gets sharper as the facts change, not one that gets defended regardless of what the data says.

We'll be publishing their monthly updates here in the Dispatch as the sprint progresses. We're looking forward to seeing how both theses develop.

Light Water Capital  ·  April 2026